Prevalence and health care costs of mitochondrial disease in Ontario, Canada: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial disease prevalence has been estimated at 1 in 4000 in the United States, and 1 in 5000 worldwide. Prevalence in Canada has not been established, though multi-linked health administrative data resources present a unique opportunity to establish robust population-based estimates in a single-payer health system. This study used administrative data for the Ontario, Canada population between April 1988 and March 2019 to measure mitochondrial disease prevalence and describe patient characteristics and health care costs. RESULTS: 3069 unique individuals were hospitalized with mitochondrial disease in Ontario and eligible for the study cohort, representing a period prevalence of 2.51 per 10,000 or 1 in 3989. First hospitalization was most common between ages 0-9 or 50-69. The mitochondrial disease population experiences a high need for health care and incurred high costs (mean = CAD$24,023 in 12 months before first hospitalization) within the single-payer Ontario health care system. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides needed insight into mitochondrial disease in Canada, and demonstrates the high health burden on patients. The methodology used can be adapted across jurisdictions with similar routine collection of health data, such as in other Canadian provinces. Future work should seek to validate this approach via record linkage of existing disease cohorts in Ontario, and identify specific comorbidities with mitochondrial disease that may contribute to high health resource utilization.

Geographic Clustering of Travel-acquired Infections in Ontario, Canada, 2008-2020

Background As rates of international travel increase, more individuals are at risk of travel-acquired infections (TAIs). We aimed to review all microbiologically confirmed cases of malaria, dengue, chikungunya, and enteric fever (Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi/Paratyphi) in Ontario, Canada between 2008-2020 to identify high-resolution geographical clusters that could be targeted for pre-travel prevention. Methods Retrospective cohort study of over 174,000 unique tests for the four above TAIs from Public Health Ontario Laboratories. Test-level data were processed to calculate annual case counts and crude population-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) at the forward sortation area (FSA) level. Moran’s I statistic was used to test for global spatial autocorrelation. Smoothed SIRs and 95% posterior credible intervals (CIs) were estimated using a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model, which accounts for statistical instability and uncertainty in small-area incidence. Posterior CIs were used to identify high- and low-risk areas, which were described using sociodemographic data from the 2016 Census. Finally, a second model was used to estimate the association between drivetime to the nearest travel clinic and risk of TAI within high-risk areas. Results There were 5962 cases of the four TAIs across Ontario over the study period. Smoothed FSA-level SIRs are shown in Figure 1a, with an inset for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in 1b. There was spatial clustering of TAIs (Moran’s I=0.61, p< 2.2e-16). Identified high- and low-risk areas are shown in panels c and d. Compared to low-risk areas, high-risk areas were significantly more likely to have higher proportions of immigrants (p< 0.0001), lower household after-tax income (p=0.04), more university education (p< 0.0001), and were less knowledgeable of English/French (p< 0.0001). In the high-risk GTA, each minute increase in drivetime to the closest travel clinic was associated with a 4% reduction in TAI risk (95% CI 2 - 6%). Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) smoothed standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for travel-acquired infections (TAIs) and estimated risk levels (a and c) with insets for the Greater Toronto Area (b and d). High-risk areas are defined as those with smoothed SIR 95% CIs greater than 2, and low-risk areas with smoothed SIR 95% CIs less than 0.25. Conclusion Urban neighbourhoods in the GTA had elevated risks of becoming ill with TAIs. However, geographic proximity to a travel clinic was not associated with an area-level risk reduction in TAI, suggesting other barriers to seeking and adhering to pre-travel advice. Disclosures Isaac Bogoch, MD, MSc, BlueDot (Consultant)National Hockey League Players' Association (Consultant) Andrea Boggild, MSc MD DTMH FRCPC, Nothing to disclose Shaun Morris, MD, MPH, DTM&H, FRCPC, FAAP, GSK (Speaker's Bureau)Pfizer (Advisor or Review Panel member)Pfizer (Grant/Research Support)

Downstream health impacts of employment losses during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The Canadian workforce has experienced significant employment losses during the COVID-19 pandemic, in part as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow COVID-19 transmission. Health consequences are likely to result from these job losses, but without historical precedent for the current economic shutdown they are challenging to plan for. Our study aimed to use population risk models to quantify potential downstream health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform public health planning to minimize future health burden. METHODS: The impact of COVID-19 job losses on future premature mortality and high-resource health care utilization (HRU) was estimated using an economic model of Canadian COVID-19 lockdowns and validated population risk models. Five-year excess premature mortality and HRU were estimated by age and sex to describe employment-related health consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns in the Canadian population. RESULTS: With federal income supplementation like the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit, we estimate that each month of economic lockdown will result in 5.6 new high-resource health care system users (HRUs), and 4.1 excess premature deaths, per 100,000, over the next 5 years. These effects were concentrated in ages 45-64, and among males 18-34. Without income supplementation, the health consequences were approximately twice as great in terms of both HRUs and premature deaths. CONCLUSION: Employment losses associated with COVID-19 countermeasures may have downstream implications for health. Public health responses should consider financially vulnerable populations at high risk of downstream health outcomes.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: La population active canadienne a connu d'importantes pertes d'emplois durant la pandémie de COVID-19, en partie en raison des interventions non pharmaceutiques menées pour ralentir la transmission du virus. Ces pertes d'emplois auront probablement des conséquences pour la santé, mais en l'absence d'un précédent historique au ralentissement économique actuel, il est difficile de planifier quoi faire pour atténuer ces conséquences. Notre étude visait à chiffrer les éventuels effets sanitaires de la pandémie de COVID-19 en aval à l'aide de modèles de risque pour la population et à éclairer la planification en santé publique afin de réduire le futur fardeau pour la santé. MéTHODE: Nous avons estimé l'impact des pertes d'emplois dues à la COVID-19 sur les chiffres futurs de mortalité prématurée et d'utilisation élevée des soins de santé (UESS) à l'aide d'un modèle économique des confinements dus à la COVID-19 au Canada et de modèles de risque pour la population validés. Nous avons estimé la surmortalité prématurée et l'UESS par âge et par sexe dans cinq ans afin de décrire les conséquences pour la santé des effets sur l'emploi des confinements dus à la COVID-19 dans la population canadienne. RéSULTATS: Avec les mesures fédérales de supplémentation du revenu comme la Prestation canadienne d'urgence, nous estimons qu'avec chaque mois de confinement économique, il y aura 5,6 nouveaux grands usagers du système de soins de santé (GUSSS) et 4,1 décès prématurés supplémentaires pour 100 000 habitants au cours des cinq prochaines années. Ces effets seront concentrés dans la tranche d'âge des 45 à 64 ans et chez les hommes de 18 à 34 ans. Sans supplémentation du revenu, les conséquences pour la santé seront environ le double, tant pour le nombre de GUSSS que de décès prématurés. CONCLUSION: Les pertes d'emplois associées aux mesures de prévention de la COVID-19 pourraient avoir des conséquences pour la santé en aval. Les interventions de santé publique devraient donc tenir compte des populations financièrement vulnérables à risque élevé de connaître des problèmes de santé en aval.

The Economic and Long-Term Health Consequences of Canadian COVID-19 Lockdowns.

To prevent exponential spread of COVID-19, many governments restricted economic activity through lockdowns. We model these restrictions as shocks to productivity by sector and trace total equilibrium effects across the economy using techniques from production network economics. We combine this economic model with an epidemiological model of income shocks to long-term health. On both long-run health and economic grounds, it is better to keep upstream sectors such as transportation, manufacturing, and wholesale open than consumer-facing sectors such as retail and restaurants.

Pour enrayer la propagation exponentielle de la COVID­19, maints gouvernements ont restreint l'activité économique en procédant à des confinements d'activité. Nous modélisons ces restrictions comme des chocs subis par la productivité dans différents secteurs d'activité et en suivons les répercussions sur l'équilibre économique global, grâce à des techniques inspirées de l'économie des réseaux de production. Nous associons ce modèle économique à un modèle épidémiologique d'incidence des chocs de revenu sur la santé à long terme. Tant sur le plan de la santé à long terme que sur le plan économique, il est plus avantageux de maintenir en activité les secteurs en amont, comme le transport, la fabrication et le commerce de gros, que les secteurs de la consommation directe, comme le commerce de détail et la restauration.